We don’t manufacture edges

Before we showed this to anyone, we aimed it at ourselves. 146 real forecasts went in; two came out the other side. We published all of it. The very first model it judged was ours, and it flunked. The point was never that we found an edge. It’s that the test refuses to invent one.

A live count, kept current: every figure traces to a published result, including the ones that found nothing. Our first big weather run: 146 of a possible 150 tests (one for every city and weather reading) scored; 10 looked like they might have an edge; only 2 held up when we tried to break them (wind only, no market you could trade).

The first model it ever judged was our own. The verdict was no edge. It caught a tempting positive result on our own model and correctly threw it out before it could fool anyone. We published that plainly. That’s the whole job: an outside read that won’t flatter you, not even us.

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Independent statistical analysis of data you provide, for your internal use. Not forecasts, trading signals, or financial, investment, or trading advice; not an audit, assurance, actuarial or expert opinion; guarantees no result. A new, solo, independent practice: no track record is implied. © McLaughlin Capital Investments LLC, not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or CTA.

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