Question 1

What is the Alpha Edge Test?

Accepted Answer

An independent statistical check of whether your forecast actually beats a fair naive benchmark out-of-sample. You provide a history of predictions and what actually happened, and it returns a plain PASS, FAIL, or INCONCLUSIVE verdict scored with standard published rules.

Question 2

Is it free?

Accepted Answer

Yes. The in-browser test is free and runs entirely on your own device, no account, no upload, no payment. Paid plans (Pro $29/mo, Team $99/mo) let you take the verdict with you: export a shareable proof PDF and batch many forecasts. It's still generated in your browser; your data never leaves your device.

Question 3

Does my data leave my device?

Accepted Answer

No. The free test runs entirely in your browser. Your spreadsheet is never uploaded, stored, or transmitted; there is no server.

Question 4

What data do I need?

Accepted Answer

Two columns over time: what you predicted and what actually happened, about a dozen periods or more. It works on sales, demand, staffing, donations, budgets vs. actuals, and market forecasts, whatever your columns are named.

Question 5

What does PASS or FAIL mean?

Accepted Answer

PASS means your forecast adds real value over a fair naive baseline like 'tomorrow looks like today.' FAIL means it does not beat that baseline. It is an honest floor, not a promise that the forecast is good enough for any particular decision.

Is your forecast real, or just luck?